Investor Sentiment Indicates CRE Cycle Is Finally Moving Past its Peak

The percentage of NREI readers who believe the current real estate cycle is at its peak took a sharp downward turn in our January sentiment survey, to 45 percent from 59 percent in November 2017. At the same time, the percentage of survey respondents who think the industry is now in a recovery/expansion phase has increased to 41 percent, from 26 percent during the last reading.

The percentage of NREI survey respondents who pegged the cycle at being at either the recession point or the trough stayed roughly the same, at 3 percent for both in January vs. 2 percent for recession and 3 percent for the trough in November.

Nine percent of respondents indicated they were not sure about which stage of the cycle the industry is in. In November, the percentage was 10 percent.

NREI conducts periodic studies of the commercial real estate sector. As part of those surveys, there is always a question on the estimation of the current state of the commercial real estate cycle. A typical NREI survey garners between 200 and 400 respondents. More than half of those respondents are typically owner/partner/president/chairman/CEO or CFO-level executives.

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