New York Leads U.S. Metros on Net Loss of Residents

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(Bloomberg)—Scores of people are leaving New York City area behind daily.

New York leads all U.S. metro areas as the largest net loser with 277 people moving every day — more than double the net exodus of 132 just one year ago. Los Angeles and Chicago were next with triple digit daily losses of 201 and 161 residents, respectively.

This is according to 2018 Census data on migration flows to the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas compiled by Bloomberg News.

At the other end of the spectrum, seven cities had on average more than 100 new arrivals every day. Dallas, Phoenix, Tampa, Orlando, Atlanta, Las Vegas and Austin saw substantial inflows from both domestic and international migration. Sun Belt cities Houston and Miami claimed the 8th and 9th spots in the ranking. Seattle was the only cold-weather destination among the top 10.

The migration figures exclude the natural increase in population, which is the difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths.

In 10 of the top 100 metros, deaths exceed new births. Thus, without migration these cities would be shrinking. Half of the 10 are located in Florida. In 11 more cities, mostly in Utah and Texas, there are more than twice as many births as deaths. Provo, which ranks first in births and last in deaths, had a 5-1 ratio.

Migration came from two channels — international and domestic. The international portion is the difference between those moving from outside the U.S. and those leaving the country. Net domestic migration counts those who move in from another part of the country and subtracts those who leave for other U.S. areas.

International Influx

While New York is experiencing the biggest exodus, the blow is being softened by international migrant inflows. From July 2017 to July 2018, close to 200,000 New Yorkers sought a new life outside the Big Apple while the area welcomed almost 100,000 international migrants.

The second most attractive locale for international migrants was Miami with an addition of 93,000, followed by Los Angeles, Houston, Boston and the nation’s capital, Washington D.C.

Phoenix passed Dallas as the greatest beneficiary of domestic migration, adding more than 62,000 residents between July 1, 2017 to July 1, 2018. Dallas got an influx of 46,000, while Las Vegas, Tampa and Austin rounded out the top five metro areas.

Accelerating

Some areas are affected by high home prices and local taxes, which are pushing residents out and deterring potential movers from other parts of the country. About 200,000 residents left New York last year. Los Angeles had a decline of nearly 120,000 and Chicago fell by 84,000. Miami, Washington D.C., San Francisco and San Jose experienced similar trends.

In Connecticut’s Hartford, Bridgeport and New Haven areas, close to 20,000 residents left last year.

Meanwhile, Colorado Springs, Boise, Charleston, SC and Las Vegas reported more than 10 times as many domestic net movers as international arrivals.

Data on migration flows are essential for understanding localized growth of everything from employment, real estate trends and retail development to government infrastructure and environmental shocks.

Among the 100 most populous metro areas, 28 shrank in total net migration — all due to negative domestic migration. Of the 72 areas posting a net gain, 18 lost residents to other parts of the country and could attribute their gains solely to international migration.

Methodology: Bloomberg ranked the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas based on their net migration data, between July 1, 2017 to July 1, 2018, as a percentage of total base population as of July 2017. Domestic migration refers to people moving within the country (e.g. someone moving from New York City to San Francisco). International migration, including natives previously living outside of the country, refers to people moving to and from the U.S.

To contact the reporters on this story: Wei Lu in New York at [email protected];

Alex Tanzi in Washington at [email protected].

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Tanzi at [email protected]

Chris Middleton

© 2019 Bloomberg L.P.

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